Sudan’s Escalating Conflict Triggers Humanitarian Catastrophe and Regional Concerns

Sudan has plunged into a devastating civil war, which erupted on April 15, pitting the nation’s military, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), against a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This conflict has not only exacerbated an already precarious humanitarian crisis but has also raised concerns about destabilizing the Horn of Africa and Sahel regions.

The Roots of the Conflict:

The two warring parties were once allies, having joined forces in 2019 to overthrow the longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for three decades. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of SAF, replaced him as the de facto head of state, backed by RSF General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. However, in 2021, amid international pressure to transition to a civilian government, efforts to integrate RSF into the national army triggered a violent revolt by Hemedti in mid-April 2023. The RSF, with a significant presence in Darfur, has seized control of towns across the country, while the battle for Khartoum, the capital, rages on.

Failed Peace Efforts:

Numerous international attempts to broker peace talks have faltered. Negotiations sponsored by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other regional actors have resulted in at least sixteen failed ceasefires. While some initiatives like the African Union’s and an Egypt-led conference have established humanitarian corridors and dialogue frameworks, they have failed to resolve the conflict. These repeated setbacks have led to calls for the establishment of a caretaker government.

The Humanitarian Crisis:

Before the conflict erupted, Sudan was already grappling with a humanitarian crisis. Over 15 million people were facing severe food insecurity, and more than 3.7 million were internally displaced. The country also hosted 1.3 million refugees, mainly from South Sudan.

The situation has now spiraled out of control. The UN refugee agency reports that over four million people have been newly displaced since April, with more than three million internally displaced and over 914,000 becoming refugees in neighboring countries. As of July 11, at least 1,105 people have been killed, including hundreds of children, and over 12,000 injured. These figures likely underestimate the actual toll.

Dire Humanitarian Conditions:

The conflict is destroying Sudan’s infrastructure, particularly in and around Khartoum, where air strikes and shelling have hit hospitals, prisons, and residential areas. A looming catastrophe is feared as deteriorating health conditions contribute to disease outbreaks. Tens of millions lack access to clean water, and rising food and fuel costs worsen food insecurity, projected to affect nineteen million people by year-end. Currently, the UN estimates that more than half of Sudan’s population, or 25 million people, require aid and protection.

Refugee Crisis:

Refugees from Sudan are fleeing in different directions. Over 279,000 people, or 39 percent of new refugees, have sought refuge in Egypt, with another 203,000 South Sudanese returning to their homeland. The remainder has fled to the Central African Republic, Chad, and Ethiopia. UN experts predict that the refugee count will keep growing as the fighting continues. Vulnerable groups, especially women and children, are at heightened risk of sexual assault and gender-based violence.

Neighboring Countries Struggle:

Sudan’s neighbors are grappling with the influx of refugees while dealing with their internal issues. Several countries bordering Sudan have faced internal conflicts recently, and refugees who had previously sought safety in Sudan are now returning to their home countries. Countries like Egypt, which has close ties to SAF, are concerned about foreign interference. Additionally, regional economic cooperation is at risk, including agreements on Nile River water resources and oil pipelines.

International Response:

International organizations, including the UN and various relief agencies, have been providing aid in Sudan for years. However, the conflict has forced many to temporarily halt or scale back their operations due to security concerns and looting. The UN’s appeal for aid to Sudan, amounting to $2.6 billion, remains significantly underfunded at only 26 percent.

The conflict in Sudan is a dire humanitarian catastrophe with profound regional implications. Urgent international intervention is needed to prevent further suffering in Sudan and to stabilize the volatile Horn of Africa and Sahel regions.

Team Profile

Harshit TokasNews Writer

Harshit Tokas is a Political Science and International Affairs Post-Graduate with a passion for understanding and analyzing complex political landscapes. Skilled in research, data analysis, and policy development. Eager to contribute his knowledge and insights to drive positive change.

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