Modi Government Advocates for Enhancing Nuclear Submarine Deterrence in Response to China
Since 2023, with approximately 11 Chinese military vessels operating in the Indian Ocean region each month, India has opted to strengthen its sub-surface deterrence.
Image Source: Samachar Jagat
This month, the Narendra Modi government approved the construction of two nuclear-powered attack submarines, signaling a shift toward sub-surface deterrence over a third aircraft carrier, which is more vulnerable to Chinese long-range missiles. The focus on sub-surface deterrence is justified by the presence of at least 10 Chinese warships, ballistic missile trackers, and surveillance ships in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) each month since 2023.
Currently, the Chinese surveillance ship Xiang Yanghong 3 is off the coast of Chennai in the southern Bay of Bengal, with the ballistic missile tracker Yuan Wang 7 stationed near Mauritius. On average, seven to eight PLA Navy warships and three to four quasi-military ships operate in the IOR, and these numbers are expected to rise as the PLA plans long-range patrols for its carrier-based task forces. With China’s growing presence in the IOR, Indian national security planners have opted for nuclear submarines to monitor and deter PLA activity, particularly in the southern Indian Ocean.
India already has two nuclear ballistic missile submarines patrolling the Indo-Pacific, and the third, INS Aridhaman, will be commissioned next year. Apart from INS Arihant, which carries 750-kilometer range K-15 nuclear ballistic missiles, the succeeding submarines are equipped with a mix of K-15 and 3,500-kilometer range K-4 nuclear ballistic missiles. On the nuclear-powered attack submarine front, the Indian Navy is set to lease a second Akula-class nuclear attack submarine from Russia by 2028, though the project has been delayed due to the war in Ukraine. The Indian Navy is pressing Moscow to deliver the SSN by late 2027. The approval of these two SSNs marks a strategic shift, as Pakistan is no longer considered the principal adversary; instead, the primary military threat now comes from China. Chinese aggression in eastern Ladakh in May 2020 has prompted Indian security planners to prioritize sea-based deterrence, as much of India’s trade to East and North Asia passes near the coasts of Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Although the Modi government has also approved the construction of three more advanced Kalvari (Scorpene)-class diesel attack submarines, these are meant to address regional threats and position Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited as a hub for exporting Scorpene-class submarines to third countries in partnership with France.
The future of the Indian Navy clearly lies in its nuclear capabilities, as it faces increasing challenges from China and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
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