Middle East Conflict Fuels Global Surge in Arms Sales

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, coupled with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions with China, has ignited a significant increase in international arms sales. Weapon manufacturers are experiencing a surge in demand, while the situation provides the United States with an opportunity to strengthen military ties with various nations.

Following the recent outbreak of hostilities initiated by Hamas, the delivery of American weaponry to Israel swiftly commenced. Shipments included smart bombs, ammunition, and interceptors for the Iron Dome missile-defense system. With President Biden’s scheduled meeting in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, additional discussions on military aid are expected.

The Israel-Hamas conflict serves as the latest catalyst for a spike in global arms sales, contributing to enhanced profits and expanded production capacity for American arms suppliers. The Biden administration sees this surge as a chance to deepen connections between the U.S. military and other countries, positioning the United States as the world’s leading arms exporter. However, concerns arise about the potential consequences of a more heavily armed world and the increased likelihood of further conflicts.

Even before Israel’s response to the Hamas attack, geopolitical factors such as Russia’s actions in Ukraine and perceived threats from China were already propelling a worldwide rush for fighter planes, missiles, tanks, artillery, and other lethal equipment. The rapid pace of technological advancements in warfare is also pushing well-armed nations to invest in new generations of military equipment to maintain a competitive edge.

The United States faces challenges in meeting the escalating demand for arms, particularly as it strives to support allies like Ukraine in their conflict with Russia and assist European partners, such as Poland, in reinforcing their defenses. Billions of dollars in pending orders from Asian allies further underscore the global appetite for military hardware.

Global military spending reached $2.2 trillion last year, the highest level in inflation-adjusted dollars since the end of the Cold War, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The surge in weapons purchases is driven by a substantial increase in procurement of new weapons systems, with an anticipated $241 billion expenditure globally on military procurement next year.

As of last year, the United States controlled approximately 45% of the world’s weapons exports, a significant increase from a decade ago. This dominance is further exemplified by the struggles of other arms-producing nations, like Turkey and South Korea, to meet the demand, giving purchasers more options amid production shortfalls in the U.S.

Nations around the world are responding to specific threats by arming themselves more heavily. Poland, fearing Russian aggression, is among those seeking additional weaponry, while others like Indonesia are transitioning to Western suppliers to keep pace with rapid militarization trends in their regions.

The surge in weapons sales raises concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts beyond those in Europe and the Middle East. Tensions between various nations, such as Pakistan and India or Azerbaijan and Armenia, have led to increased military equipment purchases, heightening the risk of regional conflicts.

For major military contractors, the surge in demand has translated into substantial profits. Pentagon notifications of proposed foreign military sales surpassed $90.5 billion in the first nine months of this year, outpacing the average annual rate of the prior decade. Direct sales from military contractors constitute the bulk of the global arms trade, with last year’s $51.9 billion in foreign military sales through the Pentagon representing only a fraction of the $153.7 billion in authorized direct sales by the U.S. to overseas buyers.

The effort to modernize military arsenals has become a significant diplomatic push by the U.S., aiming to expand military alliances globally. The United States is making headway with new customers like India and Indonesia, diverting them from Russian or Chinese influence. Military equipment deals with various countries require close coordination with the U.S. military, fostering long-term contracts that contribute to building strategic ties.

Notably, Poland stands out in the race to acquire more weapons, presenting opportunities for major American contractors and other nations. President Andrzej Duda’s announcement of allocating more than 4% of GDP to defense underscores the urgency, with Poland securing the right to buy $41.7 billion in weapons from the U.S. since January.

The Biden administration’s diplomatic emphasis extends to Asia, where efforts to bolster alliances serve as a counterweight to China’s expanding influence. Indonesia, a key focus, has shifted from a deal with Russia to purchasing Boeing-built F-15 fighter jets. Similar discussions or agreements on military equipment have taken place with Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, Japan, and several Pacific island nations.

The Middle East conflict further intensifies the demand for weapons. In response to attacks by Hamas, President Biden announced additional shipments of ammunition and Iron Dome interceptor missiles to Israel. The U.S. already provides over $3 billion in military assistance annually to Israel, with Congress considering an increase in funding, including a reported $10 billion emergency aid request from Israel.

Saudi Arabia, already the largest single buyer of U.S. weapons, seeks approval for billions more in purchases over the next two years. The surge in arms sales prompts concerns about the long-term consequences, as history shows that weapons often find their way into unintended hands, posing risks even after ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East come to an end.

The spike in demand is also presenting a challenge to the capacity of the U.S. defense industrial base. The increase in production is expected to help address weaknesses exposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. Contractors are taking initial steps to augment shifts and equipment, with Raytheon anticipating that a third of its weapon sales will be to international customers by 2025, up from about 25% last year.

In summary, the complex geopolitical landscape, marked by conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and heightened tensions with China, is reshaping the global arms trade. 

Team Profile

Saman SheikhNews Writer

Saman Sheikh, with a passion for unravelling the complex web of global events and their implications, brings a unique blend of expertise and dedication to the world of journalism. She is dedicated to keeping readers informed about the ever-evolving landscape of global politics, economics, and diplomacy, making sense of the world's most pressing issues. Saman is known for her expertise in deciphering global rivalries and shedding light on diplomatic intricacies.

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