JP Morgan Strategist Predicts Biden’s Exit and Series of Challenges in 2024
Image Source: Hindustan Times
In a foresight that reverberates through political corridors, Michael Cembalest, a distinguished JP Morgan strategist, boldly predicts President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, honing in on the critical period between Super Tuesday and March 5. This prescient projection hinges on mounting concerns surrounding Biden’s health, age, and the enduring controversies that have enshrouded his tenure in the White House.
At the age of 81, Biden stands as the oldest president in U.S. history, and according to Cembalest, he will eschew seeking re-election, likely ascribing his decision to health-related considerations. The seasoned strategist envisions a scenario where the Democratic National Committee finds itself scrambling to hastily identify a replacement candidate in lieu of Biden, adding an element of intrigue to the unfolding political narrative.
Cembalest’s comprehensive outlook for 2024, aptly named “Pillow Talk,” delves into the nuanced pressures that could propel Biden to exit the race. The strategist astutely points to heightened scrutiny over Biden’s age, cognitive well-being, and a discernible dip in approval ratings. Despite overseeing an administration that has generated approximately 10% job creation since his inauguration, Biden’s approval ratings currently languish at a mere 37%. Cembalest acknowledges the intricacies of this statistic, attributing it partially to the fortuitous alignment of Biden’s inauguration with the rollout of COVID vaccines and the gradual reopening of the U.S. economy.
Gallup polls underscore the dynamic nature of Biden’s approval, which initially oscillated between 49% to 57% during the initial eight months of his presidency. Notably, the most substantial downturn occurred between October 2-23, coinciding with the audacious incursion of the Palestinian militant group Hamas into southern Israeli towns. This series of events culminated in the brazen kidnapping of 200 civilians and served as a catalyst for the Israel-Hamas war in the war-torn Middle East.
The revelation of Biden potentially bowing out of the 2024 U.S. elections, a stage where former President Donald Trump emerges as the Republican frontrunner, has sent shockwaves through the political landscape. This momentous prediction is a pivotal component of the ‘Ten Surprises’ for 2024 recently disseminated by Cembalest, injecting an element of anticipation into the unfolding political saga.
Beyond the realm of politics, Cembalest extends his visionary insights to encompass broader challenges confronting the United States. He anticipates a gradual depletion of ammunition, aligning with a San Francisco Fed estimate pinpointing the first half of 2024. Furthermore, Cembalest prognosticates American skepticism towards self-driving electric vehicles, citing safety concerns. The U.S. is also predicted to grapple with a looming natural gas shortage, triggering blackouts across strategic states such as New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. Additionally, the seasoned strategist envisions the Russian invasion of Ukraine persisting into another year without a discernible ceasefire.
In elucidating his predictions, Cembalest emphasizes that they serve as an “exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus.” As the multifaceted landscape of 2024 unfolds, Cembalest’s sagacious projections add a layer of anticipation and speculation to the intricate dynamics shaping the future trajectory of the United States.
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