Explained: Spike in Fighting in Myanmar and Its Implications for India
Image Source: Asia Times
The recent surge in hostilities between Myanmar’s military and anti-junta forces has raised concerns about the security situation in India’s northeastern region, particularly in Manipur and Mizoram states. The escalation is tied to “Operation 1027,” initiated by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
Operation 1027 Unveiled
Launched in northeastern Shan State bordering China, Operation 1027 has seen the alliance, bolstered by smaller groups, capture over 135 military positions, amass substantial weapons caches, and gain control of crucial trade routes with China, including the town of Kunlong. This town holds significance for a proposed rail link between Myanmar and China.
Widening Conflict
Subsequent offensives by various groups, including the Chin National Front (CNF), Kachin Region People’s Defense Force, People’s Defense Force groups in Sagaing Region, Arakan Army, and Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, have escalated the conflict. Bordering India, Chin, Kachin States, and Sagaing Region have witnessed significant developments, including CNF fighters capturing Rihkhawdar, an official border crossing point with India.
Casualties and Martial Law
Reports indicate casualties on both sides, with rebel groups claiming nearly 90 military personnel killed. In response, the junta has declared martial law in multiple towns in Shan, Chin, Karenni States, and Sagaing Region. The intensifying conflict has prompted a mass exodus of Myanmarese nationals, including security personnel, into Mizoram.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance
Formed in 2016, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, driven by a desire to protect civilians, self-defense, and opposition to military dictatorship, is at the forefront of the current offensives. The MNDAA, considered the alliance’s strongest faction, spearheads Operation 1027. The Arakan Army and TNLA contribute significant forces.
Myanmar’s Response
Myanmar’s State Administration Council (SAC) has retaliated with ground forces and air strikes, aiming to regain control. Despite claiming success, the situation remains volatile. President Myint Swe warned of potential divisions in the country if border incidents aren’t effectively managed.
Implications for India
Apart from the influx of refugees into Mizoram, concerns are rising over potential spillover into India’s northeast. The ethnic ties between Myanmar’s Chin group and Manipur’s Kukis, coupled with the presence of Meitei militant groups in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region, raise apprehensions about the situation in Manipur. India’s Deputy National Security Adviser Vikram Misri emphasized the need to strengthen the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement to address ethnic conflicts during his recent visit to Naypyitaw.
As tensions escalate, the evolving political landscape in Myanmar poses challenges to the journey towards peace and stability in the region.
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- Saman Sheikh, with a passion for unravelling the complex web of global events and their implications, brings a unique blend of expertise and dedication to the world of journalism. She is dedicated to keeping readers informed about the ever-evolving landscape of global politics, economics, and diplomacy, making sense of the world's most pressing issues. Saman is known for her expertise in deciphering global rivalries and shedding light on diplomatic intricacies.
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