Disengagement in East Ladakh to Result in a Reduction of Forces along the LAC
Source: Hindustan Times
India and China will cease blocking each other at the bottleneck point in the Depsang Bulge, the entry route where Raki Nullah flows into the Bulge area.
India and China aim to complete disengagement in the Depsang and Demchok areas of East Ladakh by Diwali. However, achieving full de-escalation along the 3,488-kilometer Line of Actual Control (LAC) will be a long process, requiring mutual trust and careful security considerations by both the Indian and Chinese armies. At the bottleneck in the Depsang Bulge, the two sides will stop blocking each other, allowing passage through the ingress route where Raki Nullah enters the Bulge. Since 2020, neither side has patrolled beyond the bottleneck, preventing India from reaching patrol points 10 to 13A. Indian troops will now be able to patrol from Charding Pass to the Charding-Ningling Nullah junction, while the PLA will patrol from the Indus River up to the same point.
Although India-China special representatives are assigned to guide the LAC de-escalation, the process will take time due to challenging terrain. India must airlift equipment over two 5,000-meter passes in East Ladakh, while China operates on the flat Tibetan plateau. Additionally, China will need to withdraw four combined armed brigades stationed near Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh since late 2022. Both sides must also consider de-escalating their air forces, as each has deployed fighters, long-range missiles, tanks, artillery, and rocket regiments along the LAC. Returning peace to the LAC will require political clearance and the approval of ground commanders, especially since the Indian side includes high mountain terrain and glaciers in the Eastern sector. Ultimately, military commanders will design the de-escalation and relocation of forward-deployed forces on both sides.
This de-escalation must prioritize equal and mutual security while remaining accident-free, as the 2020 tensions created a significant trust gap. With disciplined and professional forces on both sides, the patrolling agreement supported by both nations’ leadership will likely be respected, provided that China and India remain sensitive to each other’s concerns.
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